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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

The US and Israel launched their most aggressive attack ever on Iranian targets over the weekend that killed the Islamic state’s longtime supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, thrusting the region into a widening conflict as Tehran retaliates with air strikes across the Middle East.

3 Hours ago

India to cut/eliminate tariffs on most US industrial goods and select agricultural items; the US to impose an interim 18% reciprocal tariff on selected Indian exports, with scope for phased removal in priority sectors. Introduction of rules of origin, preferential tariff rate quotas, and steps to address non-tariff barriers, including standards and conformity assessments.

3 Days ago

Reserve Bank of India MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya sees negligible risk of a near-term repo rate hike, citing no signs of overheating despite global commodity risks.

4 Days ago

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

The MPC unanimously kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, and the stance at ‘Neutral’ with a 5:1 majority (Prof. Singh favoured accommodation), given the improvement in growth prospects

Growth projection for H1FY27 was revised higher to 7% (6.8% earlier), driven by private consumption, slower pace of fiscal consolidation and benign inflation. Inflation projection for H1FY27 has been revised higher (+15bps for H1FY27) led by precious metals. But given the change in base year and methodology, FY27 projections would be released in April

Most of the liquidity infusion has been back ended which has led to significant improvement in system liquidity and transmission recently. However, high credit-deposit ratio implies upward pressure on deposit rates should continue unless foreign inflows improve. With real rate in the vicinity of ~1% next year, we believe policy rate should remain at current level. But RBI would have to continue to do liquidity intervention for transmission

Federal Reserve

The FOMC maintained status quo leaving the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% while retaining its data-dependent guidance and making a mild upgrade to its outlook on the economy.

In the next policy meeting in March, we expect the FOMC to maintain status quo as it seeks to assess the state of the economy and in particular the tariff related pass-through on inflation.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50bps over 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in February, the BoE kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in what appeared to be a tight call as the MPC voted 5-4 for the action. The central bank provided strong guidance that it could ease policy further as inflation was expected to ease and in response to labour market weakness.

In the next policy meeting in March, we expect the BoE to cut rates by 25bps while continuing to provide a dovish guidance.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative quantum of 50bps over 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in February, the ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2% while stating that policy was at a good place and that balance of risks on inflation and growth were 'in balance'.

Given the solid growth outlook, the ECB is expected to maintain status quo in its next policy meeting in March.

Our base-case remains for the ECB to maintain status quo over 2026 given that inflation is expected to hover ~2% threshold.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC has continued to inject liquidity via OMOs while it has kept policy rates unchanged responding to softer growth outlook in the region.

The PBoC is expected to keep policy accommodative and could consider lowering the RRR by 25-50bps and reduce the policy rate by 25bps over 2026 while continuing to support the economy via liquidity infusion

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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Prasanna, Head- Treasury at ICICI Bank unpack what these evolving trends mean for inflation, currency stability, sector outlooks, and investment strategies.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/tariffs-webinar-youtube-and-facebook-slot-1.webp","murl":"","datetime":"09 Jul 25 06:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/MxuF25y09hs","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Jumbo cuts by RBI: What it means for the economy and markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank","description":"Wondering what happened to RBI, what led them to cut both the repo rate, and cash reserve ratio by a big size, while changing the monetary stance at the same time. How the economy and markets will react to it and what lies ahead. In addition, more importantly what it means for the asset classes and how they will impact your businesses and fund management. What to do and how to navigate the next phase of market volatility. Tune into ICICI Bank and hear Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank to get some insights for navigating the next phase of market volatility.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/jumbo-cuts-by-rbi.webp","murl":"","datetime":"13 Jun 25 01:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/zijBGRXhoR4","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Navigating market volatility in a rapidly changing world","description":"Wondering why the volatility is rising again and what to do, whether to ride the volatility or wait for it to calm down. The world order seems to be changing and we are probably getting into a new volatility cycle, making it even more difficult to deal with the volatility. There are more questions than answers in the current environment and let us hear Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank to have some answers and clarity on the sources of volatility and ways to deal with it.\n","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/navigating-market-volatility.jpg","murl":"","datetime":"23 Apr 25 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/FArJCiPBBWw","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Navigating Current Global Volatility","description":"In this video, Mr. Prasanna B, Group Head, Global Markets, ICICI Bank Ltd., and Mr. S Naren, Executive Director & CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC, discuss the current global volition in markets across asset classes and the impact of US tariffs on Indian as well as global markets.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/navigating-current-global-volatility.webp","murl":"","datetime":"16 Apr 25 02:47 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/MQh0K5lheS8","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts","description":"The video offers key insights from industry experts on the global and domestic economic outlook, focusing on the trade war’s impact on advanced and emerging economies, and commodities. Additionally, it explores the extent to which the Indian economy may be affected, considering its domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and its dependence on advanced economies.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/key-economic-outlook-and-market-insights-by-industry-experts.webp","murl":"","datetime":"27 Mar 25 03:30 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JTu9J9j3mlk","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]}]

View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Impact of Tariffs on the Economy and Markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank

09 Jul 25 06:00 PM Exclusive Videos

Jumbo cuts by RBI: What it means for the economy and markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank

13 Jun 25 01:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Navigating market volatility in a rapidly changing world

23 Apr 25 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Navigating Current Global Volatility

16 Apr 25 02:47 PM Exclusive Videos

Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts

27 Mar 25 03:30 PM Exclusive Videos

{"GLOBAL FX PROJECTIONS":[{"title":"USD/INR","first":"90.00-91.00","second":"90.50-91.50","third":"90.50-91.50","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"EUR/USD","first":"1.17-1.19","second":"1.18-1.20","third":"1.20-1.22","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"GBP/USD","first":"1.36-1.38","second":"1.36-1.38","third":"1.38-1.40","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"USD/JPY","first":"154.00-156.00","second":"152.00-154.00","third":"152.00-154.00","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"AUD/USD","first":"0.69-0.71","second":"0.70-0.72","third":"0.72-0.74","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"USD/CNY","first":"6.90-6.95","second":"6.90-6.95","third":"6.85-6.90","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"}],"INDIA INTEREST RATES":[{"title":"Repo rate (%)","first":"5.25","second":"5.25","third":"5.25","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"SDF (%)","first":"5.00","second":"5.00","third":"5.00","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"10-year benchmark (%)","first":"6.50","second":"6.50","third":"6.50","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"}],"GLOBAL RATES":[{"title":"UST 2 year (%)","first":"3.45-3.65","second":"3.35-3.55","third":"3.25-3.45","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"UST 10 year (%)","first":"4.15-4.35","second":"4.15-4.35","third":"4.05-4.25","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"German bund 10 year (%)","first":"2.75-2.95","second":"2.75-2.95","third":"2.80-3.00","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"JPY 10 year (%)","first":"2.10-2.30","second":"2.30-2.50","third":"2.30-2.50","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"UK 10 year (%)","first":"4.30-4.50","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.10-4.30","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"}],"COMMODITIES":[{"title":"Brent crude (USD/bbl)","first":"65","second":"62","third":"60","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"},{"title":"Gold (USD/oz)","first":"3150","second":"3250","third":"3400","monthrangeone":"Q12026","monthrangetwo":"Q22026","monthrangethree":"Q32026"}]}

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 27 February 2026

Q12026

Q22026

Q32026

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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