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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

The record-breaking US government shutdown is nearing an end after a group of moderate Senate Democrats agreed to support a deal to reopen the government and fund some departments and agencies for the next year.

1 Days ago

The HSBC India Services PMI eased to 58.9 in October from 60.9 in September, the slowest expansion since May but still well above the 50 mark, indicating continued growth.

4 Days ago

States spent INR 2.5tn, or 26.3% of their INR 9.6tn budgeted capital expenditure during April-September 2025, an analysis of monthly account reports of 20 states released by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India showed

13 Hours ago

Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

The MPC kept retained repo rate and stance unchanged in the October meeting, with the tone of the policy being dovish with room opening up for easing. Notably, two external members wanted to change stance to ‘accommodative’

While GDP growth for FY26 has been revised up by 0.3% to 6.8% driven by H1 (7.4% vs 6.6% earlier), H2 forecast has been revised lower by around 0.2% (6.3% now) due to external headwinds. Benign food prices and GST cuts have driven CPI inflation forecast to 2.6% for FY26 which is 1.1% lower than June projection. However, a low base is likely to push next year’s inflation to 4.5%

With current growth trajectory below 6.5% in H2 and external headwinds, we believe room has opened up for a 25bps reduction in policy repo rate in December. Room for further easing is conditional on a number of factors: external headwinds and domestic growth when inflation is benign

Federal Reserve

The FOMC maintained status quo on expected lines at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, although the decision was not unanimous as two of eleven voting members dissented. The dissenting votes were on expected lines.

We subsequently maintain our view of a back-loaded easing cycle commencing in September with 75bps worth of rate cuts expected in 2025. The FOMC could do more rate cuts if growth deteriorates much more rapidly or the unemployment rate rises much sharper than expected.

The Fed is expected to further cut rate by 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in August, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will a "gradual and careful approach". The hawkish rate cut was a result of a 5-4 decision to ease policy.

In its next policy meeting in September, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo as it faces the prospects of rising inflation driven by services and housing bills.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by another 50 bps by the end of 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in July, the ECB maintained status quo stating statting that inflation is currently at the medium term target of 2% and that growth has remained resilient despite a turbulent external environment. Going forward the bank has stated that it will take a meeting by meeting data dependent approch closing monitoring the external environment.

The ECB is expected to keep rates steady, given the stable inflation profile and robust labour markets.

Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 25bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps in September 2024, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps in May 2025 and kept unchanged since then, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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Prasanna, Head- Treasury at ICICI Bank unpack what these evolving trends mean for inflation, currency stability, sector outlooks, and investment strategies.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/tariffs-webinar-youtube-and-facebook-slot-1.webp","murl":"","datetime":"09 Jul 25 06:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/MxuF25y09hs","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Jumbo cuts by RBI: What it means for the economy and markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank","description":"Wondering what happened to RBI, what led them to cut both the repo rate, and cash reserve ratio by a big size, while changing the monetary stance at the same time. How the economy and markets will react to it and what lies ahead. In addition, more importantly what it means for the asset classes and how they will impact your businesses and fund management. What to do and how to navigate the next phase of market volatility. Tune into ICICI Bank and hear Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank to get some insights for navigating the next phase of market volatility.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/jumbo-cuts-by-rbi.webp","murl":"","datetime":"13 Jun 25 01:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/zijBGRXhoR4","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Navigating market volatility in a rapidly changing world","description":"Wondering why the volatility is rising again and what to do, whether to ride the volatility or wait for it to calm down. The world order seems to be changing and we are probably getting into a new volatility cycle, making it even more difficult to deal with the volatility. There are more questions than answers in the current environment and let us hear Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank to have some answers and clarity on the sources of volatility and ways to deal with it.\n","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/navigating-market-volatility.jpg","murl":"","datetime":"23 Apr 25 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/FArJCiPBBWw","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Navigating Current Global Volatility","description":"In this video, Mr. Prasanna B, Group Head, Global Markets, ICICI Bank Ltd., and Mr. S Naren, Executive Director & CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC, discuss the current global volition in markets across asset classes and the impact of US tariffs on Indian as well as global markets.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/navigating-current-global-volatility.webp","murl":"","datetime":"16 Apr 25 02:47 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/MQh0K5lheS8","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts","description":"The video offers key insights from industry experts on the global and domestic economic outlook, focusing on the trade war’s impact on advanced and emerging economies, and commodities. Additionally, it explores the extent to which the Indian economy may be affected, considering its domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and its dependence on advanced economies.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/key-economic-outlook-and-market-insights-by-industry-experts.webp","murl":"","datetime":"27 Mar 25 03:30 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JTu9J9j3mlk","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]}]

View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Impact of Tariffs on the Economy and Markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank

09 Jul 25 06:00 PM Exclusive Videos

Jumbo cuts by RBI: What it means for the economy and markets, explains Mr. B. Prasanna, Head - Treasury at ICICI Bank

13 Jun 25 01:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Navigating market volatility in a rapidly changing world

23 Apr 25 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Navigating Current Global Volatility

16 Apr 25 02:47 PM Exclusive Videos

Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts

27 Mar 25 03:30 PM Exclusive Videos

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 1 November 2025

Q42025

Q12026

Q22026

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

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